I concede the fleet argument. You make a great point. I can't counter that with fact. I speculate however that the daily drive of the majority of fleet vehicles is not going to exceed the range of the vehicle. I wonder how Amazon handles it with the new Rivian cargo trucks. I'll ask my Amazon delivery guy next time I see him. They are exclusively running the Rivian trucks in our neighborhood now. Thanks for invoking thought there.
Cost per $100 miles
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I don't need to bias the calculation to a specific range. This has no valuable outcome unless you're somehow adding a unnatural element such as how you drive the vehicle. This isn't about how hard you drive the vehicle and if it was, I would suggest that based on the inefficiencies of ICE vehicles, you will feel the equal negative effects on fuel mileage. Nevermind, even if you were calculating for these unnatural elements, specified range still has no valuable outcome. No one ever calculated budgeted their bank account based on how much they spend on an arbitrary range. Oh shit. They might if they're trying to buy a car based on how much it costs them to go to and from work every week. Ok, I concede, but it's edge case at best.
I also gave the ICE calculation the maximum advantage by using exclusively the highway miles, reduced fuel cost. Infact, I imposed a negative tax on the EV calculation. Also, the rate you used for where I live is the peak rate. The offpeak rate is a third of the price. Just wanted to mention that last bit because why would anyone want to peak charge at home?
No question about it. This is a huge factor. It's just not a factor when discussing exclusively the cost of refueling/recharging. In the overall picture, at least in the short term, MSRP can be the equalizer. I agree with you. When and if vehicles like the $30k pickups make it to the market, then tables get turned, right? I can even see a scenario where the Bolt EV and EUVs go down in price as the Equinox and Blazer EVs start to crowd the price range. It wont be long till we see how they all play out. Meanwhile, today's high prices are just a luxury tax for early adopters.
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In California, the power utility (PG&E) offers incentives for fleet operators to install their own charging infrastructure on prem. So presumably someone like Amazon or Walmart would simply put their own chargers on their own waypoints then pay their negotiated commercial electricity rates (which often ignore time of use... and tend to be at rates much cheaper than residential billing).
PG&E fleet program for electric vehicles
Making the move to an electric fleet? It’s good to think about building out your charging infrastructure early in the process. PG&E’s EV Fleet program has experts, insights and resources you can lean on.
www.pge.com
Electrify America is also working on fleet programs so fleet operators that use EA equipment won't get straddled with the peak time public rate.
Our Zero Emission Vehicle Investment Plan| Electrify America
Between 2017 and 2027, Electrify America will have invested $2 billion in Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) infrastructure, access, and education in the U.S.
But in the meantime, the anti-EV folks will point to these peak-time-public charging issues as a deterrent to a BEV transition. While the vast majority of commuters are not getting electricity for their BEVs during peak time, there are still some people who have to charge at that time. So the super small population of peak-chargers is a strawman to explain why all EVs are bad. It's faulty logic, but easy pickings for the oil lobby.
During the brownouts that hit California last summer, the anti-EV folks took pictures of Teslas charging during peak time. They blamed EV charging putting stress on the grid causing the brownouts. The folks that swear by ICE still think most EV owners are charging at peak time. It's nuts.
Well said. I agree 100%. I am however mindful that there will be a day where price of fuel is going to be well over $20 a gallon. For a car enthusiast such as myself that has equal affection for ICE sports cars, I know I'm going to feel the hurt in the wallet eventually.
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I re-read your post and you are right, no bias needed. I edited my post.
Area electric rates do vary quite a bit.
In ID year round peak is $.13 and off peak is $.07/kWh.
Oh baby. Those are some spicy rates. I need a longer extension cord.
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Oh baby. Those are some spicy rates. I need a longer extension cord.
Some places in Texas offer "free" overnight rates (for now). So if you install batteries on your house, you can grid-charge for free then use the electricity over the rest of the day.
Imagine if you got a EV that was vehicle to home compatible (without needing to disconnect the home from the primary grid like the F150 Lightning). You could literally arbitrage electricity using your car and pay off that hefty BEV MSRP lolol.
Nights Free Plan - Just Energy
Choose Just Energy as your next electric company and gas provider. See electricity and gas rates and plans that meet your specific needs with a company that has served 1.5 million satisfied customers for over 20 years.
justenergy.com
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I don’t think $20 a gallon for gas is at all realistic unless there’s hyper inflation or governments make drilling impossible. There’s more proven reserves then ever.
As a side note just because people point out arguments in the middle ground does not make them Anti-EV.
That's a good idea, but I see two main problems with it. The first is that most home backup battery solutions are designed to only support a handful of circuits with a max of 20amps per circuit. Tesla power wall is the exception. They're a whole home backup. The other problem I see is that home backup batteries are small in capacity. Typical deployment is somewhere between 3 to 15kwh. Sure they can be 20-40 kwh, but that's rare. That would work well for most passenger calls that can go up to 60-70kwh. For trucks with 200+ kwh capacities, that's just a bump on the road.Some places in Texas offer "free" overnight rates (for now). So if you install batteries on your house, you can grid-charge for free then use the electricity over the rest of the day.
Imagine if you got a EV that was vehicle to home compatible (without needing to disconnect the home from the primary grid like the F150 Lightning). You could literally arbitrage electricity using your car and pay off that hefty BEV MSRP lolol.
Nights Free Plan - Just Energy
Choose Just Energy as your next electric company and gas provider. See electricity and gas rates and plans that meet your specific needs with a company that has served 1.5 million satisfied customers for over 20 years.
I do think that EV cars are the future for whole home backup, but the complexity to wire them into circuits make them so incredibly complex. They need to figure out how to simplify it. Tom from State Of Charge recently did an episode about his Ford setup.
Edit: Removed Generac as a whole home option. Thank you HawaiiEV for the correction.
Maybe I'm projecting past 2035. Isn't that like the Y2K of the car industry? I have visions of gas stations crumbling to extinction and whatever few gas stations that do remain will be at $20+ a gallon. LOL.
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Generac is limited to 32 amp of battery backup per inverter, up to 36 kWh per inverter. Enphase is capable of up to 80 amp of battery throughput with 40 kWh per controller. Franklin is the new kid on the block with 90 amp throughput from the batteries.
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I think you would be correct in your assumption. My friend used to drive a UPS truck, and I asked him one time how many miles he thought he drove in a given year. He knew exactly how many miles he had driven, and it was a MUCH smaller figure than I had expected. In a typical day, he rarely exceeded 200 miles, spending a lot of time idling as he unloaded and delivered packages. A perfect case study for an EV.
I always felt the Generac people weren't honest with me. Glad I went with Enphase. Good info. Thank you.
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Yeah, I think the benefit of Vehicle to Grid/Home isn't really in the "disconnect from grid and then backup your home critical loads". I think the benefit is allowing banked energy from on-premises solar generation or stored in an EV battery to be re-deployed at the endpoint site to help reduce peak demand.
For example, imagine a Silverado EV being instructed to export 20A @ 240V AC (4.8 kW). If this were slapped on the generation panel of a solar + energy storage system (PV + ESS), then the system could just see the 4.8 kW coming from the truck as any other energy source. The power could be sent to the home to manage loads, banked in the on-premises batteries, or just exported to the grid so ISO's see a reduction in demand.
The key here is that the system can operate in conjunction with the grid. The solution from Ford currently requires a relay that disconnects the home from the grid before the truck can "back up" the home. But for 99% of the time when the grid is up, it makes more sense for the home (with EV discharging) to work in parallel with the grid.
PV+ESS systems already have relays that disconnect the home from the grid if the grid goes offline (to deal with the islanding issue). So I think a BEV truck that can simply augment the existing PV+ESS with its own user-controlled export would be huuuuuuge. Imagine using your BEV truck to make sure you don't touch any peak electricity! PG&E currently charges homeowners $0.60 per kWh under the rate plan I'm on if electricity is taken from the grid from 4pm to 9pm. And $0.50 from 9pm to 11pm. Having a BEV that can help supply 20A for home loads through 11pm would create a reliable foundation of base load consumed on premises.
Here's hoping that Enphase is solving right now. My understanding is the Enphase bi-directional charger is supposed to work with Ford, GM, Nissan, and other BEVs. Probably not with Tesla though, since Tesla wants to own the virtual power plant enabled by their ESS and bank all the juicy credits.
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I’m not sure where generac is dishonest? Specs are on their website. As far as Enphase they have existing fires to put out, don’t expect any magical new engineering soon. The truth is all the solar companies took on a much more complex situation with the full islanding on batteries and things got very difficult for the whole industry. These other engineering solutions will take time to materialize while they deal with the full plate they have now.
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It may be possible that by 2035 30-35% of gas stations have either converted to charging stations, gas and charging or are out of business.
The conversion from ICE to EV is happening much slower than I thought/hoped it would so who knows…..
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I don't have the numbers, but we went from a Ford Expedition EL (2016 model) with the Ecoboost V6 in it to a Tesla Model X.
The Model X cost us more, the monthly payment was higher, and up until 2020 / Covid we had more money at the end of each month than we used too, something about not getting that $400 gas bill every month (used a BP card at nearby BP for most gas)
We charge at home, my electric provider doesn't have any variable rate or anything, it's a flat 0.13 per kWh.
Sadly I lost my miles and info when Automatic died, as I used their little OBD dongle to track my consumption on my Expedition. They died during covid and I was unable to rescue the four years of data so I could show my work, then I accidentally deleted this one write up I did comparing a 2200 mile road trip between the Expedition EL and the MOdel X at the same time of year/same temperature one year apart.
At a high level, we spent $380 in gas and $91 in electricity. The Model X took 4 hours longer as we had to stop and charge ~ 200 miles where the EL had 500 miles per 33 gallon tank (roughly) but we averaged about 12.5 miles per gallon vs 88 MPGe. I hadn't learned how useless MPG was as measuring efficiency (Gal/100 Miles is better) and didn't get those number converted.
We used Tesla Superchargers the entire way there.
So I don't know what fancy math this article used, but my personal experience doesn't match it. I'm sure the truck will be worse MPGe as it isn't as wind streamlined as the model x is but I'm buying it to reduce emissions not save money.
but SUV to SUV, both with AWD the EV did much better for us.
I've always felt that if an article is written to tell you why you shouldn't buy something and then try and use math to do it, having worked in product management for 18 months the gyrations people go through to justify something that only works if you squint and tilt your head and forgot all reason...I call BS on the article.
The Model X cost us more, the monthly payment was higher, and up until 2020 / Covid we had more money at the end of each month than we used too, something about not getting that $400 gas bill every month (used a BP card at nearby BP for most gas)
We charge at home, my electric provider doesn't have any variable rate or anything, it's a flat 0.13 per kWh.
Sadly I lost my miles and info when Automatic died, as I used their little OBD dongle to track my consumption on my Expedition. They died during covid and I was unable to rescue the four years of data so I could show my work, then I accidentally deleted this one write up I did comparing a 2200 mile road trip between the Expedition EL and the MOdel X at the same time of year/same temperature one year apart.
At a high level, we spent $380 in gas and $91 in electricity. The Model X took 4 hours longer as we had to stop and charge ~ 200 miles where the EL had 500 miles per 33 gallon tank (roughly) but we averaged about 12.5 miles per gallon vs 88 MPGe. I hadn't learned how useless MPG was as measuring efficiency (Gal/100 Miles is better) and didn't get those number converted.
We used Tesla Superchargers the entire way there.
So I don't know what fancy math this article used, but my personal experience doesn't match it. I'm sure the truck will be worse MPGe as it isn't as wind streamlined as the model x is but I'm buying it to reduce emissions not save money.
but SUV to SUV, both with AWD the EV did much better for us.
I've always felt that if an article is written to tell you why you shouldn't buy something and then try and use math to do it, having worked in product management for 18 months the gyrations people go through to justify something that only works if you squint and tilt your head and forgot all reason...I call BS on the article.
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Articles these days are mostly aimed at getting clicks for adds to sell you something. Of course there are biased articles with catchy titles for propaganda and to get clicks on adds.
Sadly, believing at face value in what you read on the internet is generally not of much use.
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BTW, here's an update from Electrify America (EA) with their latest rates. You can see the issue raised in some of these news articles where EV charging (at a public station) is starting to outpace ICE. If someone without the EA Pass+ charges at 90 kW for 1 hour (90 kWh) then their cost is (90 kWh * $0.48 energy) + (60 minutes * $0.19 fee) = $54.60. Assuming 250 watt hours per mile in a BEV sedan, that is 360 miles of range for $54.60.
If you took a 25 mpg ICE sedan at a $3.50 per gallon 87 octane gasoline calc, it'd cost $50.40 to fill up for 360 miles.
Naturally the ideal is for a BEV driver to "energy-up" at home, but the reality is a lot of people have to use a public charger because they either can't get a Level 2 at their residence, or they are on the road a lot.
EA doesn't seem to charge peak-time rates, but EVGo does.
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If you took a 25 mpg ICE sedan at a $3.50 per gallon 87 octane gasoline calc, it'd cost $50.40 to fill up for 360 miles.
Naturally the ideal is for a BEV driver to "energy-up" at home, but the reality is a lot of people have to use a public charger because they either can't get a Level 2 at their residence, or they are on the road a lot.
EA doesn't seem to charge peak-time rates, but EVGo does.
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